Hits: 12

I have been working on this problem for quite some time with students and colleagues. This is the first in a series that I will be presenting for discussion and critique. Simply put **Bayesâ€™ theorem** (alternatively **Bayesâ€™ law** or Bayes’ rule) describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. The first model that I propose applies Bayes in the estimation of death-related outcomes as random events (an agnostic premise). Prior assumptions for this model are as follows:

- After-life is a dichotomous event. One has equal probability of experiencing an after-life;
- States of being are polychotomous categorical events. Experiencing or not experiencing an after-life have equal probability of a positive, negative, or neutral disposition;

The model is as follows:

Where,

n=n event;

A=After-life event;

P=probability.

Published By bryanw56